[Gpn-announcements] Latin American Elites More Doubtful of U.S.

[Tony Avirgan]

POLITICS:
Latin American Elites More Doubtful of U.S.
Jim Lobe
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=36100
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (IPS) - Elites in the major countries of Latin America

are increasingly bullish about their nations' economies and increasingly

alienated from the United States, according to a new survey by Zogby 
International and released this week by Newsweek magazine.

The poll of 603 prominent Latin Americans -- divided roughly equally 
among politicians, businesspeople, academics and media figures, 
virtually all of them with university degrees -- suggests that 
Washington looms less important for these leaders than in the past and 
has become increasingly unpopular under President George W. Bush.

Indeed, 86 percent of respondents, including 81 percent who identified 
their political views as being right of centre, characterised 
Washington's handling of relations with Latin America as being either 
"fair" (48 percent) or "poor" (38 percent), compared to the mere 13 
percent who called them "good" and one percent who said they were 
"excellent".

Anti-U.S. opinion was particularly pronounced in Mexico where nearly two

out of three respondents described relations with Washington as "poor". 
Even in Colombia, by far the largest recipient of U.S. aid in Latin 
America, only less than one in four respondents characterised ties with 
the U.S. as "good", while more than three in four said they were either 
"fair" (46 percent) or "poor" (31 percent).

And while the United States is still considered by Latin elites to be 
the single country that will prove "most important" to Latin America's 
future, China and the European Union (EU) are also seen as major 
players, particularly for the region's economy.

Thus, while 58 percent of respondents said trade agreements with the 
U.S. were either "important" (26 percent) or "extremely important" (32.5

percent) to the region's economy, that fell well short of the 80 percent

who described such ties with the EU and the 70 percent who cited trade 
ties with China in the same ways.

Similarly, nearly 27 percent of respondents described China as the 
country that is most important to Latin America's future, just behind 
the United States, which was cited by 30.5 percent.

The new survey, which was similar to one conducted by Zogby in 2002, 
covered between 80 and 100 leaders in each of seven countries -- 
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Venezuela, as well as Mexico and 
Colombia. Respondents were interviewed in November and early December.

Compared to 2002, Latin American elites are showing much greater 
optimism, particularly regarding prospects for their economies. Thus, 
five years ago, only seven percent of respondents described the health 
of their national economies as "good" or "excellent". That share has 
risen to 43 percent, according to the latest poll, which also found that

a whopping 81 percent expect improvement in the coming years.

The most positive attitudes were found in Argentina, Chile, Peru and 
Venezuela, particularly about the countries' prospects over the next two

years. By far the most pessimistic, on the other hand, were the 
Mexicans, 83 percent of whom described economic conditions there as 
"fair" or poor", and one-third said the situation is apt to worsen.

Brazilians, on the other hand, were the most optimistic, with nearly 
nine in 10 forecasting improvement.

Elite respondents also voiced optimism about the general direction of 
the region as a whole. A majority of nearly 53 percent said they thought

Latin America was on the "right track"; one in three said it was on the 
"wrong track." Peruvians, Brazilians, and Venezuelans were the most 
optimistic; Mexicans and Chileans were the least, according to the 
survey, which was co-sponsored by the University of Miami in Florida.

Asked which of Latin America's current government leaders represented 
the best models, Chile's Michelle Bachelet was chosen by nearly 28 
percent of respondents, followed closely by Lula da Silva at 26.4 
percent. Colombia's Alvaro Uribe came in third, boosted by the votes of 
34 percent of his country's respondents.

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez placed fourth with nine percent, followed 
closely by Argentina's Nestor Kirchner at 8.5 percent. Like Uribe, 
Chavez received 39 percent of the votes by his compatriots. He also 
received the highest rating of all Latin America leaders among the 
youngest respondents, those aged between 18 and 24 who, however, made up

only two percent of the total sample.

Among those respondents who described themselves as left or left-leaning

(4 or 5 on a 1-5 right-left spectrum), Lula and Bachelet topped the list

with just over 50 percent each, while Chavez ranked third at 45 percent.

About one in three respondents described themselves as 4s or 5s, and, 
among those who gave themselves 5, Chavez was the most popular by far.

At the same time, only 28.4 percent of all respondents described 
Chavez's influence on Latin America as "positive", while 62 percent said

it was "negative". Highest positive ratings were found in Venezuela (45 
percent), Argentina (36 percent), and Mexico (31 percent). The most 
negative ratings were found in Peru, at a whopping 91.3 percent).

Just over one in four respondents described themselves as right (1) or 
right-leaning (2). Of those, 62 percent said Uribe was the best model of

leadership for the continent. He was followed by Bachelet and Lula, 
respectively.

In contrast to the negative views of the U.S. under Bush, China's 
emergence as an economic power was seen by the elites in a mainly 
positive light. Just under half of all respondents described Beijing as 
an "economic partner" as opposed to a "serious" (7.1 percent) or 
"potential threat" (12.6 percent).

Another 6.6 percent said it constituted "no threat". The most favourable

attitudes were found in Venezuela, Chile, and Peru, while Mexican 
leaders were the most leery, probably as a result of Chinese competition

for U.S. markets.

By margins of two to one, respondents in both Chile and Argentina 
considered China to be more important to Latin America's future than the

United States, while respondents in Peru were split on the question. The

U.S. was considered more important in the other four countries.

Still, the survey found strong support for a Free Trade Area of the 
Americas (FTAA) that would include the United States. Overall, nearly 
two out of three respondents supported such a pact. The FTAA was 
particularly popular among elites in Peru (92.5 percent support), Chile 
(84 percent), and Colombia (77.5 percent). Opposition, on the other 
hand, was strongest in Argentina (51.9 percent), Venezuela (a plurality 
of 41 percent), and Brazil (a minority of 41 percent).

Asked whether they thought it was more important for their country's 
economy to be integrated with the U.S. or with other Latin American 
countries, however, only one in three chose the former, while 59 percent

- including a majority in each country -- opted for the region.

Support for regional integration was highest in Argentina (72 percent), 
Brazil (64 percent), and Colombia (62.5 percent). Support for 
integration with the U.S. was highest in Peru (41 percent), Mexico (37 
percent), and Brazil (35 percent). (END/2007)